Scotland’s population is shifting at a pace never seen before, according to new analysis from National Records of Scotland (NRS).
The Registrar General’s Annual Report, Scotland’s Population 2024, shows the country reaching a record 5.55 million people, with projections suggesting it could rise to 5.8 million by 2047 if current trends continue.
That growth is happening despite births hitting an all-time low. For the ninth year in a row, Scotland recorded more deaths than births in 2024. The age-standardised mortality rate, however, was the lowest since records began in 1994.
Migration continues to be the main driver of population growth. In the year to mid-2024, around 56,400 more people moved to Scotland than left, with three-quarters arriving from outside the UK.
The ageing of Scotland’s population is accelerating. Since 2004, the number of people aged 75 and over has risen by 43%. Between 2022 and 2047, that group is projected to grow by more than 341,000 people — largely due to the post-war baby boom generation reaching older age.
Andrew White, NRS head of population and migration statistics, said: “Scotland’s population has never been so big or had as many people aged 75 and over. At the same time, we’ve never had so few births. These are unprecedented demographic shifts.
“Our statistics also inform the future. We are projecting a further significant increase in the number of people aged 75 and older in the coming decades. At the same time, the numbers of children and young adults are projected to decrease. This tells us that demand for age-related services such as childcare, education, housing, healthcare and social care will change.”
NRS estimates show Scotland could see almost 80,000 fewer children aged 0–15 and more than 57,000 fewer people aged 16–29 by 2047. While the 30–59 age group is projected to rise by more than 144,000, Scotland is still on course to have the largest population of pension-age people in its history — and a slightly smaller working-age population than today.
Registrar General Alison Byrne OBE said: “Scotland’s population is always changing in response to economic conditions, social attitudes and global events. The eldest of the post-second world war baby boom generation will shortly celebrate their 80th birthdays, the youngest have already entered their 60s. We can see these changes in our population projections. These figures are vital in planning to meet future needs.”
NRS also warns that the changes won’t be felt equally. If recent trends continue, 23 local authorities will see population growth over the next two decades, while nine are projected to see decline.